DECISION POINT: In an online Tournament with blinds at 500/1,000 and a 1,000 big blind ante you are dealt 8♣8♠ in the Cutoff seat. Stacks at the table range from 10BBs to just over 40BBs. The early position players fold, the MP1 player open shoves for 15,000 (15BBs) and action is on you with 21BBs behind.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are in the middle stages of a major Sunday online tournament. The blinds are 500/1,000 with a 1,000 big blind ante. The stacks range from 10 big blinds to just over 40. We are dealt black eights in the cutoff and it folds to MP1 who open shoves for 15,000.! Everyone else folds and action is on us.

When analyzing spots like this after the fact, we should approach from two perspectives. First, we should estimate MP1 range and how our hand performs against that range, much like we would in real-time at the table. Second, we should double check our estimate in real-time by running the spot in a solver to see what things look like when both players are using optimal ranges.

Studying in this way allows us to exercise our brain in the same way that we will use at the table, and then either reinforce our thoughts with the solver or discover any errors.

If the decision was wrong in real-time we can determine if this is a fundamental leak and what adjustments need to be incorporated to our game plan. If the opponent was likely shoving different ranges than the solvers suggest which may often be the case, then we can consider the merits of making an exploitative adjustment against our real life foes.

A primary consideration is whether MP1 has a non all-in raising range here. It’s likely at this stack size that they would raise a more standard sizing and not just move all-in with AA/KK and some of their other biggest hands.

Given this we can assume that MP1 is likely to have a capped range that includes many suited broadway hands, some big Ax hands, and some middle pairs. The key factor we need to assess is if MP1 will ever move all-in with pocket pairs lower than 88 or Ax combinations where their kicker is lower than 8.

In real-time we thought it was possible our opponent is capable of shoving as light as 77, but 66 or less and A8s or worse seemed unlikely so we chose to fold.

Through post hand analysis using a Game Theory Optimal Solver we can see that if MP1 is splitting their range properly the all-in range will include 66-99, A8s-AJs, AKo, KJs, KTs, QTs+. The range of hands that prefers to raise a standard amount first-in at 15BB blinds includes a mix of stronger hands (TT+/AQs+), some smaller suited Ax combinations, and offsuit broadway hands. Against the specific all-in range provided by the Solver we see that 88 has a +550 chip (+.55 BB) expectation. This means that against an opponent using GTO ranges we should be calling, although the decision is still very close.

In real world situations many players might shove hands such as TT/JJ, especially as they don’t want to encourage action and have to play postflop. If MP1 was the type of opponent to use this larger sizing with medium pairs that may be vulnerable on overcard flops then this spot would quickly become a fold. We would also have an easier call if we were in the Blinds with fewer players behind yet to act.

Against a GTO opponent, calling is the best play. Against specific opponents shoving narrower ranges or higher pairs, you could make an exploitative fold.

DECISION POINT: You are dealt J♠T♠ in the middle stages of a large field tournament with blinds at 400/800 and a 800 big blind ante. Action folds to you in the MP2 seat and you raise to 2,000, the Small Blind and Big Blind call. Your opponents check the A♣Q♣5♦ flop, you c-bet 3,000, and only the Small Blind calls. On the 5♣ turn your opponent checks and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are in the middle stages of a large field poker tournament. The blinds are 400/800 with an 800 big blind ante. The two players who are first to act fold and we are dealt JsTs in MP2.

Our standard opening hand range in Middle Position includes all suited broadway combos so our suited JT is good for a raise here first-in. At this stage in the tournament with the big blind ante in play and most stacks are below 50 big blinds, we can start to decrease the standard opening raise size. In later stages sizing as small a minimum raise can be acceptable, however in this case we raise to 2.5BBs or 2,000 chips. Action folds to the Blinds who both call.

The Big Blind is getting an excellent price to call, so it is reasonable to assume a wide calling range. In the case of the Small Blind, this calling range should be much more narrow. They should be reraising with strong hands and mostly calling with a narrow hand range that includes several medium strength combos including 88-JJ and AJ/AT as well as suited broadway hands, but none of the bigger hands like AQ+/QQ+. A calling range with these characteristics is often referred to as a condensed range.

The flop is AcQc5d and the Blinds check. We did flop some equity with an inside straight draw here, but most importantly we have a huge range advantage. Our opponents should very rarely show up with premium hands like AA/QQ/AQ here, and they can have the occasional 55/A5s. With all the strong combinations in our range this is a great spot for a continuation bet. There are multiple players in the pot and a flop that favors our range. Large c-bet sizing is not required, as our opponents will likely act based on absolute hand strength in this situation and are unlikely to continue with a wide range of hands from out of position. We elect to continuation bet 3,000 into the 6,800 pot and only the Small Blind calls.

The Small Blind’s calling range can still contain 55 but also AJo/ATo, plus some smaller suited aces such as A9s/A8s at a lower frequency. Flush draws and several Qx combos as well as KJs/KTs/JTs are also part of this range, although we block some of the KJs/JTs combos. The turn is the 5c and the Small Blind checks.

It would be easy for us to give up in this spot. The Small Blind’s range does contain some flushes, however if we really dig deep into this range it also contains some Ax and Qx combos with weak kickers that are now counterfeited. In addition, since most of their Qx combos are likely to include spades and the Qc is on the board, the remaining possible combos of Qx hands in the Small Blind’s range are less likely to contain a club.

Recognizing this condensed range is very important as the 5c is a good card for us to bluff against all their non-flush hands. Most of the Ax combos in the Small Blind's range are just hoping to chop at this point and the Qx combos are now reduced to bluff catchers. Some of the AJ/AT combos in the SB's range contain the Jc/Tc with some frequency (not in this specific case given our hand) and the ones that don’t will have a harder time calling. While our opponent does sometimes have a flush here and we feel foolish when they jam on us with their big hands, our range has AA/QQ/AQ and flush combos as well. This means this particular card will be just as scary for the Small Blind, if not more so, than it is for our range on the turn.

This is a great spot to fire a second bullet as a bluff. A bet size of half pot puts plenty of pressure on our opponent and creates additional leverage through the threat of an appropriately sized all-in river shove.

Betting half pot (6,400) is the best play.

DECISION POINT: You are playing a Milestone Satellite to the WPT® World Championship at Wynn Las Vegas with blinds at 50/100 and a 100 big blind ante. You are in the Small Blind with Q♠Q♥ and 4,600 chips (46BBs). An Early Position player limps, a visibly frustrated player in the MP2 seat makes it 300, the Button flat calls, and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are in the second level of a Milestone Satellite into the WPT World Championship at Wynn Las Vegas. The blinds are 50/100 with a 100 big blind ante and we have 4,600 chips in the Small Blind with Q♠Q♥. MP2 has been active and recently frustrated by some tough spots, even tossing his cards aggressively toward the dealer in one instance. The UTG player limps and everyone folds to MP2 who makes it 300. The Hijack and Cutoff fold, the Button flat calls, and action is on us.

Queens are well ahead of MP2’s and Button’s ranges which makes folding out of the question. Calling is likely profitable but we’d be most likely to take a flop 4-ways, which can be quite problematic for a hand that is likely to make one-pair in a multiway pot. So in this instance if we are favoring a raise, what is the best size to use in this spot given our positional disadvantage?

The standard raise in this situation is 3x the initial raise plus any call amounts. In this scenario that works out to 900 + 300 + 100 or 1300 chips. Given our positional disadvantage, using a slightly larger raise size in the 1400-1500 chip range would be standard. The issue with adjusting to larger sizing to accommodate for the positional disadvantage is that we have committed one third of our stack.

That could remove any illusion of fold equity our opponents have and inadvertently force them to play better versus our hand by not bluffing against us. If we bet a little smaller, for example a sizing of around 1150, we create the illusion of fold equity if MP2 or the other 2 opponents want to shove. The smaller sizing also creates a really good price for a squeeze with some of our bluffs here to ensure balanced range with other hands in this same spot.

If the table was quite soft there is also merit to just moving all-in preflop. This would not be the default play, but if you’re at a soft table where chips are coming easy, moving all-in can sometimes induce some light calls from smaller pairs hoping to be racing against AK. The shoving line, while also a little lower variance, is at the expense of some EV as opponent calling ranges vs the large shove size will be more narrow.

Reraising small to 1,150 is the best play.

DECISION POINT: You are in the early stages of the $1,100 WPT Prime Championship Tournament with blinds at 300/500 and a 500 big blind ante. Most stacks are between 50-100BBs and you have 95BBs. First to act, you raise to 1,300 with A♦K♦. Action folds to the Hijack who makes it 3,800, the Big Blind cold 4-bets to 8,500, and action is back on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing the early stages of the WPT Prime Championship at Wynn Las Vegas. The blinds are 300/500 with a 500 big blind ante. Most of the table has between 50-100 big blinds. We are dealt A♦K♦ Under the Gun (UTG) with 47,500 chips in our stack. AK suited is firmly in our first-in opening range from early position, so we raise to 1,300 chips. Action folds to the Hijack who makes it 3,800. Everyone else folds to the Big Blind who cold 4-bets to 8,500.

Since we raised UTG and were reraised by the Hijack, the player in the Big Blind should already be putting us both on very narrow ranges. This means that the Big Blind’s cold 4-betting ranges should be quite polarized, with most bluff combinations that have card removal effects to the opponent's biggest hands. A good example of a hand that fits this category is A5s.

If we analyze this spot in a solver and assume the Hijack and Big Blind are using appropriately balanced ranges, we see that the recommended play with AKs is to shove all-in. In fact, the most surprising thing that we see in the solver output is that almost our entire range is reduced to shove or fold against this 4-bet from the Big Blind. The combinations that are recommended to raise small and call an all-in make up a tiny percentage of the strategy.

This spot is still incredibly close given the strength of our hand preflop. Shoving AKs has a slightly positive expectation, however the offsuit versions of AK are neutral with the solver recommending a fold over half the time. Based on this output we can make a few general assumptions.

We should not be flat calling this raise, or raising a size that is not all-in. Additionally, our hand will quickly become unprofitable if the Big Blind is not 4-betting an appropriate range that is balanced and includes ATs/A5s with some frequency, JJ about half the time, and AQs almost always.

So without any knowledge of how our opponents play, we should move all-in here and assume they are playing reasonable ranges. If the Big Blind is 4-betting a narrower range than optimal, or if we feel our edge over the table is significant enough that passing on a spot that might be slightly +EV to make sure we are around for future opportunities where we can exert our skill edge, then folding would be best.

Moving all-in is the best play, unless we have player specific reads or a significant table edge, in which case folding is best.

DECISION POINT: You are currently eight-handed in the middle stages of a major weekend online tournament with blinds at 500/1,000 and a 1,000 big blind ante. Most of the stacks at the table have around 50BBs and 75% of the field is still in play. The UTG player raises to 2,000 and it folds to you in the Small Blind with Q♥Q♦. You reraise to 9,000, the Big Blind folds, and the original raiser calls. The flop comes 6♦4♣3♠ and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are in the early to middle stages of a major weekend online tournament. Most of the stacks at the table, including us, have around 50 big blinds. Around 75% of the field is still playing. The blinds are 500/1,000 with a 1,000 big blind ante. We are dealt QhQd in the Small Blind with eight players at the table. The UTG player opens to 2,000 and the action folds around to us.

While this raise came from an opponent seated Under the Gun, this opening range should still be as wide as 18-20% of overall hands when using a small opening raise size and with a big blind ante in play. Our specific hand pocket queens is well ahead of that range. Due to being out of position we are heavily incentivized to push our equity edge preflop by reraising rather than taking a passive line and playing out of position postflop with relatively deep stacks. We choose to reraise to 9,000 chips, the Big Blind folds, and the original UTG raiser calls.

The flop is 6d4c3s and with a stack to pot ratio (SPR) of around 2, our pocket queens are very strong and we are near the top of our range, so folding should not be a consideration at any point in the hand. Given that is the case our main concern here is finding the best way to get money into the pot against their range. When the UTG player just calls our preflop raise, their range is usually condensed to pairs as well as some suited aces and suited broadway hands. Although AK might just call sometimes preflop, many players would just move all-in preflop with that hand so we can discount it from our range assessment. This means that when we’re ahead our opponent is likely drawing to somewhere between 2-3 outs, the exception being the times they specifically have combinations of A5s and 55.

The big temptation that many players have here is that they want to bet big and just get the hand over with.

If we really think about UTG’s range our hand isn’t that vulnerable when we’re ahead on this flop. You’re not likely to make big hands at a high frequency in any given tournament, so it’s vital that we’re able to maximize our value when spots like this do occur. If we bet big here our opponent may continue with some of their overpairs, however most of their defending range will be composed of hands that are drawing super thin on this flop such as JTs/ATs.

Consulting the output from a GTO solver for this spot, we see that the preferred line actually checks with our hand at a high frequency here to induce a stab from the portion of UTG’s range that just contains overcards. In addition to checking the solver recommends sometimes betting with a mix of sizing between 25-50% pot. Using a sizing any larger than half pot will likely force our opponent to play closer to “perfect”, by folding all their hands that have little equity against us and only continuing with their strongest holdings.

In real-world games our decision in this spot will be influenced by any tendencies we’ve observed from our opponents.

If we have observed that the UTG player might aggressively take a stab at the pot if we check, this is a great place to play our hand a bit deceptive and check the flop. Against more passive opponents it’s crucial to start betting now and to choose a small sizing that will allow UTG to continue with hands we are dominating.

Both checking and betting small are the best plays.

DECISION POINT: You are in the middle stages of a multi-table Tournament where blinds are 500/1,000 with a 1,000 big blind ante. Stacks at the table are between 30-50BBs and you have 50BBs. You’ve observed the players on the Button and in the Blinds to be solid opponents. Action folds to you in the Cutoff with Q♠T♠ and you raise to 2,300. The Button 3-Bets to 6,900 and both of the Blinds fold.

Action is back on you, what do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing the middle stages of a multi-table Tournament. The blinds are 500/1,000 with a 1,000 big blind ante. The Button, Small Blind, and Big Blind are solid players with a good understanding of poker theory. We have 50,000 chips and most of the other stacks around the table have between 30-50 big blinds.

We are dealt QsTs in the Cutoff and action folds to us. We make a standard opening raise to 2,300 and the Button to our immediate left reraises to 6,900. Both the Small Blind and Big Blind fold and action is back on us.

Against skilled and aggressive players it is very important that we are able defend reraises of our first-in opens with an appropriate frequency. In this scenario the Button 3-bet 6,900 to win our initial 2,300 raise amount plus the additional 2,500 in the pot. Since they risked 6,900 to win 4,800 if we defend any less than around 40% of the time (4800/6900) our opponent can profit by reraising with any two cards. Using our estimated equity in the pot as a shortcut to govern how often we need to continue against aggressive action in a specific scenario is often referred to as minimum defense frequency.

The best combinations for us to defend against reraises include hands that realize their equity well out of position. This means that in addition to some of the more obvious candidates like big pairs , Ace-King, and Ace-Queen that will continue by calling or 4-betting, we need to fill out the rest of our range with other hands that don’t favor a 4-bet such as pairs and some of our best suited hands. Our specific hand QTs is one of the better candidates to defend in this spot, with GTO response charts recommending we continue against a Button 3-bet with as low as Q8s.

In game, if we have a read that our opponent is not 3-betting an appropriate range and is instead using a much narrower one, we could make an exploitative adjustment in this spot by folding. Against skilled and aggressive opponents we must defend a certain percentage of the time to avoid being exploited, and QTs falls firmly into the preferred 3-bet defense range in this spot.

Calling is the best play.

DECISION POINT: You just sat down at a live $5/$10 cash game with $1000 effective stacks and are dealt A♠3♠ in the Big Blind. Everyone folds to the Button who raises to $25, the Small Blind folds, and you call. You check the 7♥3♦2♣ flop and your opponent c-bets $35.

Action is on you, what do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing a live $5/$10 cash game with $1000 effective stacks and have just recently sat down so we have no relevant reads on the table. Everyone folds to the Button who raises to $25, the Small Blind folds and action is on us with As3s in the Big Blind.

Reraising preflop is certainly valid as a part of a polarized 3-betting strategy, however this hand falls more firmly into the category of a call. The output from a Game Theory Optimal solver prefers to 3-bet A5s, and A4s a portion of the time, leaving A3s and A2s as the suited wheel combinations that prefer calling in this scenario. When analyzing this strategy it’s important to note that 3-betting these hands as a bluff too frequently would imbalance our range.

If we chose to include A3s as part of our overall 3-betting strategy in this instance it could be acceptable, as long as we used some sort of suit or clock randomization technique to maintain appropriate balance. In situations where we have specific reads on an opponent, such as they will call 3-bets frequently but often fold to aggression postflop, we could widen our 3-betting range to include A3s.

In this instance we elect to call and the flop is 7h3d2c. While leading on some low card boards that favor a calling range over the Button’s raising range is a valid play, the default play in this defense calling scenario from the Big Blind is check to the preflop raiser. We do check, and the Button continuation bets $35.

Our pair of 3s is likely to be the best hand on the flop a vast majority of the time and folding to a standard c-bet in spot would be a huge mistake against skilled opponents. Both check-raising and calling have a positive expectation. Right away we can see that check-raising is problematic as our range doesn’t contain many combos that can check-raise for value when we are deep stacked. If a pair of threes is in our check-raising range here, it’s very easy for our range to contain too many weak hands and allow a good opponent to counter by calling or 3-betting more frequently.

We don’t have a backdoor flush draw and our straight draw can only be completed if 4 cards to a straight are showing on the board, so it is not very well disguised. Considering the specific factors in this hand as a whole, calling is the preferred play in this scenario.

Taking this line will likely require some difficult turn decisions where we sometimes may need to call on the turn with 3rd pair, however we show a positive expectation in the long run, especially vs skilled and aggressive opponents.

Calling is the best play.

DECISION POINT: In a live $2/$5 cash game you’ve just moved to a new table and have no specific reads. The action folds to you in Middle Position with K♣K♦ and you open with a raise to $15. Everyone folds to the Big Blind who calls. Your opponent checks the A♠Q♠9♦ flop, you continuation bet $25 and get called. The Big Blind leads $40 on the 2♥ turn and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are playing in a live $2/$5 cash game. We are new to the table with no reads and the effective stacks are 100BBs. We raise first-in to $15 with KcKd in MP2 (often referred to as the Lojack) and everyone folds to the Big Blind who is the only caller.

The flop is AsQs9d and the Big Blind checks. This is a flop where we have a tremendous range advantage as the preflop raiser. It is unlikely our opponent has AK/AQ or premium pairs such as AA/QQ, as they would reraise those hands preflop at a high frequency. We on the other hand can have all those premium combinations plus other types of hands in our middle position raising range such as 99, A9s, and Q9s.

If we were to consider a checking range on this flop it should favor some of the weaker Ax hands and KK, however defaulting to continuation betting our entire range in this spot is favorable. Taking a closer look we can analyze this hand with a solver which confirms our assumption of a mix between checking and betting with KK specifically, with the overwhelming majority of the remaining combinations preferring to continuation bet this flop.

We bet $25 and the Big Blind calls. The turn is the 2h and the Big Blind leads into us for $40. This strategy of check/calling the flop and then leading the turn is typically only utilized by the Big Blind when an equity changing card falls on the turn. In the case of this specific flop the 2h shouldn’t really change anything.

Reviewing the recommended actions for our opponent based on a solver, the only hand the Big Blind is supposed to have that could potentially lead here is 5s4s. Against human opponents on draw heavy flops like this one, certain opponents may call the flop then lead with medium strength hands on a “safe” card that doesn’t complete draws on the turn when they believe they could be ahead.

While that perceived leading range does include some Ax type hands, it also contains many Qx and 9x combos that might be attempting to buy a cheap showdown as well. Considering the Big Blind’s range as a whole and how it interacts with this board, our pocket Kings have far too much equity to fold getting nearly 4:1.

Calling is the best play.

DECISION POINT: In a live $1/$2 game it folds to the Cutoff player who raises to $5. You reraise to $15 from the Button with K♣Q♣ and only the Cutoff calls. The flop is K♥T♣3♠ and your c-bet of $16 gets called. The turn is the K♦ and the Cutoff checks. You bet $32, your opponent check-raises to $96, and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: In a $1/$2 cash game we are dealt KQs on the Button. Action folds around to the Cutoff who raises to $5. Our specific hand is an excellent candidate to reraise on the Button here, as it is ahead of Cutoff’s likely hand range and plays very well heads up in position. We reraise to $15 and the Cutoff is the only caller.

The flop is KhTc3s and the Cutoff checks. We flop top pair with a good kicker and a backdoor flush and straight draw. This flop also significantly favors the preflop raiser’s range over the preflop caller’s range so this is an excellent spot to continuation bet. Given our range advantage and our hand’s lack of vulnerability since we block QJ which is the most significant drawing hand here, a purely game theory optimal (GTO) strategy would have us c-betting closer to ⅓ pot. We elect to use a slightly larger sizing of $16, or closer to half pot, and our opponent flat calls.

The turn is the Kd giving us three of a kind and the Cutoff checks again. AK is likely not a significant part of Villain’s range here as most players would have reraised preflop, so we’re well ahead of many of their hands and really only behind KTs/TT/33 that they may have played the hand this way. We bet $32 and the Cutoff check-raises to $96.

Now, realistically the most likely hands that beat us here are KTs (2 combinations remaining), plus TT and 33 (3 combinations each). Based on these assumptions that means we are currently behind 8 of the combinations in the Cutoff’s likely range. Our opponent could also be doing this with a hand like KJ (8 combinations).

Although realistically they may only play the suited versions here, slow played pocket AA (6 combinations), the remaining KQ hands we don’t hold (3 combinations), and the occasional bluff. We can discount some of the KJ combinations given the Cutoff is unlikely to play all the offsuit versions. Additionally we can discount some AA combinations as they would elect to reraise preflop with some frequency. This decision is actually much closer than it appears on the surface, even though we have 3 of a kind and a strong kicker.

Since our hand is very close when up against the Cutoff’s value raising range here, if we continue it is very important to allow our opponent to keep bluffing with AJ/AQ/QJ type hands in their range.

If we go all-in here the Cutoff may fold some bluffs that they would potentially shove the river with if we continue by calling the check-raise, costing us value. When we’re behind in this situation our opponent is unlikely to fold to aggression if we do take that round.

Trip Kings is too strong to fold in this spot, so proceeding in a way which allows our opponent to get the rest of their money in with the widest range possible is best.We should call this check-raise on the turn, with the plan of calling any bet on the river as well.

Calling is the best play.

DECISION POINT: You are in a large field WSOP bracelet event with blinds at 1,000/1,500 with a 1,500 big blind ante. A very loose UTG player who has been opening 50% of hands (showing down hands such as offsuit connectors and Ax from all positions) min-raises to 3,000. The UTG+1 player 3-bets to 4,500 and you 4-bet to 15,000 from MP2 with J♥J♦. The Button calls, the original raiser folds, the UTG+1 player makes it 65,000, and action is on you.

What do you do here?

PRO ANSWER: We are in a large field WSOP event shortly after the dinner break. The blinds are 1,000/1,500 with a 1,500 big blind ante. The UTG player has been playing wildly, opening and 3-betting an estimated 50% of hands, showing down hands such as offsuit connectors and Ax hands from all positions. We are dealt JhJd in MP2 and the loose, wild UTG player makes a minimum raise to 3,000. The UTG+1 player then 3-bets to 4,500 and it folds to us.

Under normal circumstances an UTG raise and an UTG+1 reraise would make us think twice about playing our jacks. Given the tendencies of the UTG player though it is quite likely that the UTG+1 player would make a small isolation raise with a much wider range than normal in an attempt to isolate the UTG player’s wide range and play heads up in position.

With so many players left to act it’s unlikely they are isolating with a super loose range, but they could easily be isolating with the top 15% or so of hands and our jacks are well ahead of that range. We 4-bet to 15,000 and action folds to the Button who just flat calls our raise. Everyone else (including the wild UTG player) folds and then the UTG+1 player 5-bets to 65,000!

While UTG+1 might isolate the UTG player with a wide range, to 5-bet after we 4-bet and the Button cold call is likely a VERY narrow range, something like QQ+/AK. If we knew that the Button would fold 100% of the time we would have around 36% equity against the UTG range.

The raise is effectively all-in because if we elect to continue in the hand neither player should ever fold a future street, barring extreme circumstances like exposed cards. If we evaluate this as an all-in situation then we’d be calling 73,500 to win 125,500, which is a little worse than 2:1 odds.

If we knew the Button would fold 100% of the time this decision would be incredibly close assuming the assessment of our opponent’s ranges are accurate. However, given we can’t be certain the Button will fold, we have to consider a possible slowplay with a big hand that would have us dominated.

It feels bad to 4-bet and fold, but our jacks are in bad shape against a likely very narrow range from UTG+1.

Folding is the best play.